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Post NFL season prediction examination

February 11, 2011 Leave a comment

As the NFL season is now at an end, it’s time to see how pathetic my pre-season predictions were which you can see in this previous post from September – https://smegheaddave.wordpress.com/2010/09/08/nfl-predictions/

Well, here are how the standings actually finished, with my pre-season prediction in brackets:

AFC East

1. New England Patriots 14-2 (12-4 – 2 games out, not bad)

2. New York Jets 11-5 (9-7 – 2 games out, not bad but underestimated)

3. Miami Dolphins 7-9 (8-8 – 1 game out, pretty good)

4. Buffalo Bills 4-12 (5-11 – 1 game out, ok but a bit generous with the wins)

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 (8-8 – 4 games out, what was I drinking?)

2. Baltimore Ravens 12-4 (13-3 – 1 game out)

3. Cleveland Browns 5-11 (3-13 – 2 games out, not bad)

4. Cincinnati Bengals 4-12 (8-8 – 4 games out, wow they were bad)

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts 10-6 (13-3 – 3 games out, can I blame injuries?)

2. Jacksonville Jaguars 8 -8 (7-9 – 1 game out, alright)

3. Houston Texans 6-10 (8-8 – 2 games out, not bad but I thought this was to conservative)

4. Tennessee Titans 6-10 (10-6 – 4 games out, a rusty like Smith prediction)

AFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 (4-12 – 6 games out, those Chiefs are fast…)

2. San Diego Chargers 9-7 (11-5 – 2 games out, not bad but I’ll blame injuries again)

3. Oakland Raiders 8-8 (5-11 – 3 games out, underestimated)

4. Denver Broncos 4-12 (6-10 – 2 games out, not bad but overestimated)

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 (8-8 – 2 games out, not bad, this was made when Kolb was the guy)

2. New York Giants 10-6 (7-9 – 3 games out, can’t remember my reasoning for this)

3. Dallas Cowboys 6-10 (11-5 – 5 games out, doubt I was alone with this poor judgement)

4. Washington Redskins 6-10 (6-10 – NAILED IT, I love a nice predictable franchise with no drama…)

NFC North

1. Chicago Bears 11-5 (4-12 – 7 games out, yeah I’m sorry Chicago)

2. Green Bay Packers 10-6 (13-3 – 3 games out, not the worst ‘3 games out’ ever)

3. Detroit Lions 6-10 (5-11 – 1 game out, pretty good)

4. Minnesota Vikings 6-10 (11-5 – 5 games out, bye bye Brett)

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons 13-3 (9-7 – 4 games out, poorly underestimated)

2. New Orleans Saints 11-5 (12-4 – 1 game out, pretty good)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6 (3-13 – 7 games out, maybe worse than my Chicago prediction)

4. Carolina Panthers 2-14 (6-10 – 4 games out, massively overestimated)

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks 7-9 (9-7 – 2 games out, not bad and I didn’t know anyone else picking them for the division)

2. St Louis Rams 7-9 (5-11 – 2 games out, not bad but clearly a bit better than I thought)

3. San Francisco 49ers 6-10 (9-7 – 3 games out, not good)

4. Arizona Cardinals 5-11 (8-8 – 3 games out, ‘3 games out’ also the Cardinals quarterback philosophy)

In terms of the playoffs, I did predict the Packers to reach the Super Bowl but I had them losing to the Colts so I can’t really claim to much of a victory in that. Anyway, roll on the new season and lets sort this Collective Bargaining Agreement out and get back to the action.

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NFL Predictions

September 8, 2010 Leave a comment

The season is almost here!! And here are my predictions for how I see the season possibly panning out.

To come up with these predictions, I have taken into account each team’s schedules and predicting the outcome of each game, as well as looking at their performance last season and deciding if I think they will improve or take a step back this season. Feel free to yell at me and tell me I’m an idiot but this is how I see the season going.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots (12-4)

2. New York Jets (9-7)

3. Miami Dolphins (8-8)

4. Buffalo Bills (5-11)

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

4. Cleveland Browns (3-13)

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts (13-3)

2. Tennessee Titans (10-6)

3. Houston Texans (8-8)

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers (11-5)

2. Denver Broncos (6-10)

3. Oakland Raiders (5-11)

4. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)

3. New York Giants (7-9)

4. Washington Redskins (6-10)

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3)

2. Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

3. Detroit Lions (5-11)

4. Chicago Bears (4-12)

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints (12-4)

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)

3. Carolina Panthers (6-10)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13)

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

2. San Francisco 49ers (9-7)

3. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

4. St Louis Rams (5-11)

PLAYOFFS

Seedings:

AFC

1. Indianapolis Colts

2. New England Patriots (take tie breaker with Ravens with win week 9)

3. Baltimore Ravens

4. San Diego Chargers

5. TennesseeĀ  Titans

6. New York Jets

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers

2. New Orleans Saints

3. Dallas Cowboys

4. Seattle Seahawks

5. Minnesota Vikings

6. Atlanta Falcons (take tie breaker with 49ers with win week 4)

Wildcard Round:

AFC – Baltimore Ravens beat New York Jets & San Diego Chargers beat Tennessee Titans

NFC – Dallas Cowboys beat Atlanta Falcons & Minnesota Vikings beat Seattle Seahawks

Divisional Round:

AFC – Indianapolis Colts beat San Diego Chargers & New England Patriots beat Baltimore Ravens

NFC – Green Bay Packers beat Minnesota Vikings & Dallas Cowboys beat New Orleans Saints

Conference Championships:

AFC – Indianapolis Colts beat New England Patriots

NFC – Green Bay Packers beat Dallas Cowboys

Super Bowl:

Indianapolis Colts beat Green Bay Packers

Of course, this will be probably be miles off what actually transpires and come the end of the season I will look back at these predictions and see how close I got.

AFC East Preview

September 1, 2010 Leave a comment

With the NFL regular season just around the corner, now is a good time to have a look over each division and the possible championship contenders as well as those just looking to pick up a few wins that would constitute a successful season. Beginning in the AFC East, it appears there will be a two-way battle for the division title between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets. The Patriots last year were third in the league in offense and with Brady, Moss, Welker, Maroney, Taylor and co, they are still going to be able to put up plenty of points. Therefore, their relatively young defense won’t be under to much pressure in a lot of games and they can just try and contain the opposition and get the high powered offense on the field for as long as possible. The Jets were the top ranked team in total defense last season and head coach Rex Ryan will hope to keep that defensive momentum that took his team all the way to the AFC championship game a year ago. One major worry for Jets fans is the continued hold out of pro bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis who is an essential part of that feared defense.

Revis still holding out

With no real progress being made between the two parties, Jets fans will be desperate that the contract dispute will be resolved as soon as possible and that Revis will be back on the field keeping the league’s top receivers under control. If Revis isn’t available for some or all of the season, the defense will undoubtedly suffer and put more pressure on the offense and second year quarterback Mark Sanchez. Last year Sanchez threw 12 touchdowns with 20 interceptions and if more pressure was to be put upon his shoulders there is a chance he will try to force to many throws into dangerous areas resulting in an increased number of turnovers and adding an ageing LaDainian Tomlinson to the roster isn’t going to improve the offense a whole lot.
Picking a winner from these two sides is tricky and both teams may well end with similar records with a one or two game difference, but I see the Patriots taking the top spot this season as their offense will consistently win them nine or ten games and with the Revis uncertainty, the Jets defense may suffer early on in the season, putting the pressure on Sanchez and his offense. However, no matter which of these teams takes the top spot, the other will definietly be challenging for one of the two wildcard spots from the AFC.

Moving onto the other two teams contesting the division, we have the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins will feel they have an outside chance of a winning season with a schedule that sees them with some attractive home ties against Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago, however I think they will be realistically looking at a final record of around 8-8 or 7-9. Last season they were 26th in the league in offensive yards per game, however they do have a strong defense that will help put them in winning positions. The Dolphins will be hoping that Chad Henne, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Bradon Marshall and the rest of the offense can siginificantly improve and give them an outside chance of challenging for a wildcard spot.

The Buffalo Bills are the overwhelming favourites to prop up the division. Even with the addition of first round draft selection CJ Spiller at running back that will improve a good ground attack, they will struggle to win many games. Whether it’s Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick or even Brian Brohm or rookie Levi Brown at quaterback, throwing to Lee Evans and Roscoe Parish, the Bills will struggle to do much through the air. They will also struggle on the defensive side of the ball where last year they conceded 348 yards per game which was good enough to be the fourth worst defense. No doubt the addition of Spiller will give them a bigger points threat, but I can’t see much hope for more than 4 or 5 wins at best this season for the Bills.

Predicition:

New England Patriots

New York Jets

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo Bills